In light of the announcements being made in the UK and the rest of Europe recently; we are constantly being asked if we feel that now is a good time to plan and book a trip for this summer, or even the summer of 2022.
Short answer is ‘Yes’ and here are some of the reasons why.
Cabin Fever
It’s pretty clear that people have had enough of staying at home, baking banana breads and perfecting home workouts. Now that there are some positive signs of change – with the discovery, and now, successful administering of vaccines in many parts of the world – it’s human nature to want to get back to some sense of normality, and to travel like we did pre-Covid
Trepidation
There is a certain amount of trepidation though still out there. Whilst some frustrated and patient (pardon the pun!) travelers have been vaccinated and are less cautious; others are definitely risk averse. And so. these two completely different camps are having an impact on the travel market without even realising it. Within the travel industry we are seeing that 50% of those we are talking to are keen to experience a staycation this year, with a view to booking a vacation abroad only in 2022. However, the question still remains ‘When is the right time to start booking trips again?’.
The stats
Let’s take a look at this summer (2021). Its clear that everyone, and his dog, wants or needs a vacation this year. If we just look at the United States we will see that in 2018 (according to the National Travel & Tourism Office) 41 million Americans traveled overseas. In addition, a further 51 million Americans traveled either by car or by air to Mexico and Canada alone! So, even if a small percentage of these 92 million, who would normally travel abroad, decided to vacation in the USA this year – where are we finding all these extra beds from?
Common Sense
We don’t need to bring the economic principles of supply and demand into the conversation here; its just plain, common sense that the sooner we plan and book our summer vacation the better. The saying ‘The early bird catches the worm’ applies really well here – more choice, more availability. Relying on past habits of booking a few weeks or months before departure is not sensible, in the present climate. Its clear that things are opening up, and so, availability is going to diminish.
Mad Rush
The same applies to overseas travel. More and more countries are opening up their borders and are doing away with mandated quarantining and PCR tests, As of mid to end May 2021,it is likely that Europe will open its borders to Europeans, and some time in June, to those countries fortunate to be on the ‘green list’. It’s hopeful that the USA and Canada will be on this list. As soon as this happens, there is no doubt that there will be a mad rush to book whatever there is available at the time (I’m not joking!). And what this means is that travelers might not be booking the type or standard of holiday/vacation that they are used to, Travelers should realise that they are not entering the game at ground zero. Travelers who had planned to travel in 2020 ,when COVID struck, moved their trips to 2021. So we already now have those vacations booked in the ‘vacations pot’, meaning that some hotels are already at near maximum occupancy, before the typical vacation planning season has even started!
Casualties of War
What travelers should also realise is that there have been a significant amount of ‘casualties of war, and so, there are also now fewer hotels (that were able to weather the storm); as well as fewer restaurants, tour operators, tour guides, etc.
Outlook for 2022
Fast forward to 2022 and I think the situation is likely to be even worse. Again, not all who wanted to travel in 2020, who then moved their trips to 2021 are going to travel in 2021! And so, a good percentage of these have once again moved their vacation, yes to 2022! So again we are not starting from zero in the summer of 2022.
Not a Normal Year
In any normal year, we would expect that a small percentage of travelers would plan their vacations a year in advance, but realistically, most would do this 6 to 9 months before. What we are finding is that, as this is not a normal year, we are in a situation where; if say, 10 clients would plan a year out, we actually now have 40 to 50 clients already planning (just to let you know, we are now actually 14 to 15 months in advance of them traveling!)
Prices are rising
What we are seeing at the moment is that due to over demand and under supply (as well as many businesses trying to recover their losses from last year), that accommodation and airplane ticket prices are on the rise – having been at an already over inflated rate for the time of year. In addition, what are proving to be more popular at the moment are, more remote areas (with less people) and apartments over hotels (again. less people) – these are also now becoming scarcer and scarcer.
Quick Fire Deals
Granted there are some suppliers who are eager to get clients to book ‘today!’, and so, are offering some quick fire deals and incentives; but these won’t last very long.
Book Now!
Our advice would be to book now. But, where possible, book refundable accommodation options or tickets. If this is not a possibility, ensure that there is a lot of flexibility – allowing you to move/postpone the service purchased to a future date without penalty. Travel is not the same as it used to be, and we think this is one big plus, one silver lining, that has come out of this epidemic. Companies are now happier to take payment closer to the delivery date, to make their clients feel more comfortable with booking the service (room, tour, transfer, train, plane) now. But, also on their side,, taking payment later eradicates the admin nightmare that so many experienced in the past; of having to spend weeks refunding monies to those who weren’t able to travel in 2020, for services unfulfilled.
Don’t get caught with your pants down!
The last word…if there is a deal now, grab it! But don’t wait for it to happen, as there is a possibility that it might never come, and that you end up being caught with your pants down. If anything, expect to pay more than you would normally, and if you get to plan the trip you envisaged, then feel fortunate. Be happy that you get to, or will get to, experience a little bit of normality again in the near future….and get to build memories again, for yourself, and your families.
